Amazon River Incs

Essay by kimbo2013University, Master's February 2013

download word file, 5 pages 0.0

Executive Summary

Exotic Adventures Inc. (EAI) operate excursion-like voyages during the high water season along the full passable length of the Amazon River; including Belem, Brazil on the Atlantic coast to Iquitos and Peru. Due to popular demand, EAI began accepting reservations for the low water season of October so the passengers would be able to see more wildlife. The lowest the water had reached was 18 feet, which gave them a 4 foot cushion for their vessel. Despite historical measurements, in early September EAI received word from their Brazilian agents that the water levels were unusually low due to El Nino. Simultaneously, the agents in Peru were stating that everything was clear, and pilots were operating as usual. The Brazilian agents would get a financial benefit if the vessel stayed within the lower part of the river while the Peruvians would get hit with a financial loss if the vessels cancel.

Being EAI has no source of unbiased information and only 5 days left to decide to proceed with or cancel the trip, we will select the optimal decision with a decision tree and risk profile probability chart and statistical summary created from the Precision Tree Software populated from various data pulled from this case. This solution implies the optimal solution would be to go on the trip. Furthermore, there is a 40% probability EAI will make it all the way up the river and receive the full profit of $396,000.

Background

Exotic Adventures Inc. (EAI) operate excursion-like voyages during the high water season along the full passable length of the Amazon River; including Belem, Brazil on the Atlantic coast to Iquitos and Peru. Due to popular demand, and with little to none previous knowledge or experience, EAI began accepting reservations for the low water season of...