Against the Gods
What is against the gods? God gives us too much uncertainty. Just like playing 24 points, you will never know how many points the next card has. But even so, in the long run, some people still steady get profit from this game, certainly overcome the uncertainty. That is the essence of against the gods.
The development of human beings is the exploration of nature and the human social organization. Encountered all kinds of uncertainty in the exploring, failure and success are our costs. When we make breakthrough again and again, when we make innovation again and again, when we creating a new miracle and history changes by our exploration, sudden changes makes us dumbfounded and go back in time.
We thought that we knew the risk and controlled the risk, there would be no more risks anymore. But the sudden events of nature and society constantly break our dreams and fantasies.
We know that the events with low probability will happen anyway, no one can get away from them.
Even if human beings realized this kind of helplessness, they still didn't give up on the exploration of risk control. But as the exploration progress, they discovered that the most difficult part is to master and control their own hearts. When we use the tools of hedging as a method to gamble, and gamble everything for a profit with little probability, I don't know that whether we are against the gods or against or selves.
To avoid the risk, though the progress of mathematical tool is necessary, but we still need our humility and rationality in the end. "Know yourself" should be remembered by every risk management professional or investor.
This book tells the story of the historical process of human exploring the risk. In the early...