April 28, 2006: 1.3185 New Lira =1 US dollarShort Term (1 week) ForecastTechnical Analysis:Using the technical analysis method for forecasting one week into the future for the New Turkish Lira, it is necessary to look to the currencyÃÂÃÂs recent (up to 1 year) history. Over the past year, the Lira has stayed within a fairly narrow range in relation to the U.S. Dollar.
Looking at the data for the past year, the Lira reached its weakest point, compared to the dollar, on August 19, 2005, at a rate of 1.379 TRY/USD.
The strongest point for the currency, as compared to the dollar, came on March 3, 2006 at a rate of 1.2964 TRY/USD. In this time there was a difference of .0826, the 180-day average was 1.3421, and the percentage change over this time was 5.9898%.
Most recently, over the past 15 days the currency has been even steadier, ranging from 1.3521
to 1.3174, a difference of only .0347. In addition to this recent steadiness, the currency has been on an upward swing, rising about .02 over the most recent few weeks. Using this fact, in combination with the moving average crossover strategy, it is clear that the currency is currently on a rather strong upward swing. Using this method with a 180-day moving average, it is clear to see on the graph that the moving spot rate crossed over its trend line sometime in mid-April and has been on the rise since then.
Finally, using the Bollinger Band analysis, it is clear looking at the graph that the currency is still well within its limit of 2 standard deviations above or below the trend line. This translates to normal variations in the exchange rate and shows no signal of being overvalued or undervalued. Using all three of these forecasting...