# Quantative Methods for Business. Managerial and scientific report Best Bike Ltd. Simulation with Excel Cristal Ball.

Essay by pootkameelUniversity, Master'sA-, February 2004

Managerial Report

1.Introduction

BestBikes Ltd. designs, produces and markets a wide variety of bicycles. Currently it is evaluating two new product proposals that have reached the final planning stage, namely a road- and mountain bike. BestBikes Ltd. can only produce one of the two proposed bikes. BestBikes wants to select the bike with the highest return on investment (ROI) and wants to limit the amount of risk.

The calculation of the ROI ratio by BestBikes Ltd. for both proposals gives virtually identical results and therefore more in depth analysis is required. With almost equal ROI ratio's the incurring risk and the impact of these risks on the spread in the possible ROI becomes significant.

Forecasted maximum sales4,000Forecasted maximum sales2,500

Sales price2,400Sales price3,600

Initial investment240,000Initial investment280,000

Fixed cost60,000Fixed cost100,000

Variable cost1,333Variable cost1,600

Table 1.1: Given figures for Road and Mountain Bike 1

2.Calculating ROI

The uncertainties that are important for this investment are:

The sales volume

The investment

The variable cost of each product

The initial investment for the Road Bike has a normal distribution with a mean of 240,000 and a standard deviation of 20,000. The variable cost has of the Road Bike has a triangular distribution with min. and max. value 750 and 2,000 respectively and the most potential value set of 1,250.

For the Mountain Bike the initial investment has a triangular distribution with min. and max. value of 100,000 and 600,000 respectively and the most potential value set of 150,000. The variable costs of the Mountain Bike follow a normal distribution with mean of 1.600 and standard deviation of 600. When using Crystal Ball there is a possibility to develop a simulation model which enables you to give insight in the investment problem that BestBike encounters.