Economic Indicators Forecast

Essay by siciliangirl310University, Bachelor'sA, June 2009

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Gross Domestic ProductThe effect of U.S. auto sales on the Auto Industry, as a whole, is very little. As the profits for American companies were chopped nearly in half, other automakers such as Honda, Nissan, and Toyota have been making a large profit, by introducing fuel-efficient vehicles at a reasonable price. "Nissan, of course, is only the latest in a parade of manufacturers--mostly Asian--introducing sensible products that address the new reality of rising fuel prices in the United States while appealing broadly to Americans' tastes and pocketbooks." (Lienert 2005) As long as foreign manufacturers continue to declare sizeable profits, the Auto Industry will continue to grow.

According to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, "The total output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the United States decreased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2009" (para. 1). In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3

percent. Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.36 percentage points from the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 2.01 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change.

The chart below shows model performance for GDP over the past two years with growth expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter of 2009, a little earlier than indicated by Fed minutes and other projections.

Table 1 GDP, actual and forecasted20082009Quarter 10.9%0.5%Quarter 22.8%0.4%Quarter 3-0.8%0.5%Quarter 4-2.4%2.2%UnemploymentIn an article dated June 7 of 2009, a Michigan forecast stated that the unemployment situation is only going to get worse before it gets better. Based up on the forecast given by George Erickcek the employment rate in the Grand Rapids are was going to decrease by 2.4 percent (Daly, 2009). The actual number for total unemployment for Michigan is 14.1%. Erickcek predicts that the overall unemployment rate starting in 2010 will decrease by...