Statistics assignment

Essay by katerina729 January 2004

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Executive Summary

Although it is difficult to predict the probability of success for a movie before it has been created, there are factors in previous movies that have been considered. The quality of the movie and appeal of the story line are obvious influences but are difficult to measure. This report analyses the influence of some measurable factors in the ratings of TV movies. It examines the importance of a movie being fact or fiction on the ratings. A decision must be made whether or not Edgar Scherick should invest $10,000 in a fact based movie or should pitch a fictional movie with no fee for the rights. If the pitch is successful Scherick could obtain $500,000 - $600,000 in compensation.

The investment is less than 2% of the possible compensation. It is my recommendation that the producer therefore invest the $10,000 as the percentage chance of getting higher ratings on a fact based movie is higher than on a fictional one.

The producer has been unsuccessful pitching fictional movies in the past and has a greater chance with a fact movie.

My findings are the following

*The network, the day of the week and the month of broadcast all have low correlation with the ratings

*Having a star in the movie will have a high probability of increasing the ratings

*The rating of the show before has a significant effect on the ratings

*NBC's ratings are the least effected by fact or fiction out of the three major networks

*ABC's ratings are the most effected by fact or fiction

*There is a positive effect on the ratings of all stations by using a fact for the movie storyline

*As the other two network's ratings are more influenced by the fact of fiction, if NBC does not accept the story...