Probability Theory and Decision Making Paper: Exploring India's Market for Coffee Simulation

Essay by tommyd92University, Master'sA-, March 2007

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As we continue to explore India's market for coffee we will discuss the major research concern in this simulation. As Coffee Time begins to attract customers it will be very important to create product awareness in India. The product has had good market response and to help continue awareness, Coffee Time has decided to participate in the South Asia shopping festival in Mumbai, India. Coffee Time will set up two stalls at this festival and will attempt to encourage patrons to buy Coffee Time's products. The simulation had us compare data from previous festivals to predict the average attendance of the event. We used the information to decide whether we would make enough profits to set up our own stalls or to franchise these two stalls out. This simulation provided us with a company, Forefront, to give an accurate estimate for the South Asia's market and help to target the daily attendance and how much supplies we will need throughout the shopping festival.

We will need to study charts and decide an optimal stocking level the expected monetary values or expected opportunity loses. This will help to decide the approximate sales figures during the duration of the shopping festival whether Coffee Time should over stock their supply or under stock of cups, basically whether we make a profit.

Major Research Concern

The major research concern of the simulation would be different methods of how Coffee Time would develop their product awareness and their market demand in India. This is important because it will have a direct affect on the profitability of Coffee Time. The critical decisions will have an impact on the business and will have an affect on Coffee Time's profits. It will be important to revise the probabilities in each scenario during the simulation using the...